We have gathered the technical data on Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (ASNA), and see some interesting trends in the stock’s behavior of late. Every professional at some point comes to respect the actual behavior of a stock as the true arbiter of right and wrong with any bet. The chart captures that best.
ASNA has been trading in a bearish trend, based on the relative levels of its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages. This suggests that the broad sum of capital flow in the stock has been generally negative over the recent period. In terms of the relative level of interest afforded this stock among active participants in the market, relative volume measures have been weak, indicating apathy for the name by traders, investors, and money managers during the past month of action. This suggests something of the significance of other current technical measures as well.
For market timers, it’s also important to take measure of the relative level of recent lift or pressure in the stock is it overbought or oversold? For that, we turn to RSI and stochastic measures. The 14-day RSI stands at 48.33%. That shows that the stock, according to a traditional interpretation and usage of the RSI indicator, is not particularly predisposed to a reactive price movement based on this measure If we look at the stochastic measure, the raw data over the stock’s last month of action shows a score of 41.81%. Based on a raw data interpretation, this perspective doesn’t suggest either an overbought or oversold condition.
It should be noted that the overall volatility in the stock is worth gauging as well. In recent action, ASNA has made a move of +0.16 over the past month. Over the trailing year, the stock is underperforming the S&P 500 by -70.75%, and it’s gotten there by action that has been more volatile on a day-to-day basis than most other stocks on the exchange. The stock’s recent movement has come on a historical volatility score of 56.23%, which represents the standard deviation of returns of a theoretical long position from a mean price during that period. On a daily basis over the past month, the average true range of the stock, as expressed in percentage terms, is 6.1%. That should give you a pretty good sense of the level of risk implied in a short-term trading approach in the stock with a stop-loss in place.
As it stands at present, the stock might find important action at key Fibonacci levels. Fibonacci levels are used by major Wall Street firm technical desks. The math is drawn from the Fibonacci series that defines growth systems by an interval increase characterized by steps divisible by the “golden ratio” of 61.8%. In this case, the critical 38.2% level drawn off the 52-weeklow of $3.53 sits at $5.92. ASNA also has additional resistance above at the stock’s 200-day simple moving average, which sits at $5.99.